Berning For You

Does Bernie have any chance at all?  All we’ve heard about him since Day 1 is that he has no chance.  Hillary will crush him and if by some chance he gets past her, the republican candidate will crush him.  The republicans are salivating at the thought of running against a Jewish socialist who has a Brooklyn accent and is from Vermont.

And yet, Bernie has outperformed all expectations to this point.  He has generated a fair amount of enthusiasm among younger voters and in fact, is crushing Hillary in the youth vote.  He almost beat Hillary in Iowa and will probably beat her soundly in New Hampshire.  Not bad!

Here’s where it gets murky though.  Bernie does not have the minority support that Hillary has.  Iowa is whiter than white and New Hampshire is a neighbor state.  Can Bernie somehow gain momentum out of New Hampshire and make a real run at it?  Probably not.  Still, I bristle when I read that he has no chance at all.  He has a chance.  He has done much better than anyone thought he would.  Why is that?

I’m sure there are a number of reasons for Bernie’s success so far but let’s focus on two of them.  First off, he’s sincere in his beliefs.  You may not agree with him on some or any issues but no one doubts his sincerity or thinks about him as “just another politician that will say anything to get elected”.  Secondly, democrats like to get passionate about their candidates and Hillary, from day one,  has been unable to generate much passion among democrats.  Hillary, like her or not, is probably the most qualified presidential candidate we’ve have in some time but there are so many people who just, flat out hate her.  She has a “problem with the truth”.  Name me a politician, other than Bernie, who doesn’t?  Is it because she’s a woman?  I think that’s a big part of it.  I’ve seen a lot of hate directed at her by republican men and not a ton of love for her among democrat and independent men.  She would be wise to find a way to generate more passion and enthusiasm among women, especially young women.

Personally, I’ll never forgive her for voting for the Iraq war.  She could have made a difference but she failed us miserably.  It cost her in 2008 against Obama.  In the end, I don’t think it will cost her this time around.  I think she’ll get past Bernie and brace yourselves haters, win the presidency.  Still, don’t count Bernie out yet.

 

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6 thoughts on “Berning For You

  1. No.. he doesn’t actually have a chance. I’m actually interested in why they let him hang around. Maybe without any opposition she couldn’t raise money as easily. He’s also an excellent stalking horse calling out the republicans without ever really challenging her on anything where he could make real headway.

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    1. I’m always leery of conventional wisdom. I think he has a chance, however small. He actually has gone after HRC in a strong way about her PAC and Wall St connections. Who is the “they” you speak of? Bernie has many supporters(I am not in either camp). I don’t think he can win any other states after NH but it wouldn’t shock me if he did.

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  2. “They” is the Democratic party machine. Which may sound nefarious, but, at least they have their shit together enough to *have* a machine. The leading republicans are a bunch of half-wits and chancers.. their actual politicians can’t get it together enough to even get talked about.

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    1. It’s a real shame that most of the moderate republicans have retired. We would be better off, as a country, if they had all stayed and fought for the soul of their party. Instead, it’s mostly in the hands of the tea party radicals.

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  3. It’s also counter-intuitive. The more to the fringes you are the less likely you are to ever get anything done. Look at Bernie.. 25 years in and he’s never gotten anything meaningful done, yet.. it is never a consideration that his plans are totally not going to work to the electorate who only see it as “free shit”. I look at Trump the same way.. except his electorate says “screw everyone but me”. The only difference is that I do like Bernie.. and.. I applaud him for holding onto his ideals. I’d argue that Trump would actually get more done even though I think he’s a dipshit.

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    1. I agree that Trump would probably get more accomplished than Bernie would. I think this is because the Dems in congress, unlike the republicans, will not shoot things down automatically, just because the opposing party wants it. They(the republicans) are aptly named the “party of no”.

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